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20 de mayo de 2024
CON EL DIARIO DEL LUNES
La sorpresa Milei: ¿las encuestadoras no la vieron o los votantes no la anticiparon? miércoles 16 de agosto de 2023 19:20
Se sabe que ninguna de las principales encuestadoras políticas de Argentina estuvo cerca de anticipar el batacazo electoral de La Libertad Avanza (LLA) en las Paso presidenciales. Lo que resulta interesante es que las estimaciones para las otras dos grandes alianzas estuvieron muy cercanas a lo que revelaron los resultados.
Este escenario da lugar a interpretar, al menos, dos realidades. La primera es que los encuestados no reconocieron que iban a votar a Javier Milei o no lo tenían decidido y lo definieron el día de la votación. La otra opción es que simplemente fallaron los métodos de la encuesta.
El antecedente más fresco de encuestas para una Paso presidencial es el de 2019, cuando los relevamientos previos daban un empate técnico entre Alberto Fernández y Mauricio Macri. Lo sucedido en las urnas para esa instancia electoral fue historia conocida: el actual presidente sacó una ventaja de casi 16 puntos.
Para este caso se tomaron seis encuestas publicadas durante el mes de julio, que tienen el denominador común de que ninguna ubicó a LLA, ni siquiera en el segundo lugar y en el mejor de los casos estuvieron a poco más de cinco puntos de la cosecha final de la fuerza liderada por Milei.
Mirando el vaso medio lleno, la mayoría de las consultoras coincidieron en la paridad resultante entre Juntos Por el Cambio y Unión Por la Patria, e incluso casi todas ubicaron a la alianza en la que compitieron Bullrich y Rodríguez Larreta por sobre la de Massa y Grabois, que fue lo que terminó sucediendo.
Con el diario del lunes Quizás la consultora que más cerca estuvo de los resultados finales fue Zuban Córdoba . En primer lugar porque fue la que más se aproximó al resultado electoral de los libertarios, pero además porque la estimación para UP y JXC es muy similar a los resultados provisorios.
Opina Argentina
Taquion RS
Circuitos
Proyección
Isonomía